Georgios Chatzianastasiou is the Head of Coffee at Gleneagles Hotel and an AST for Barista and Brewing modules with the Specialty Coffee Association. A dedicated professional in the coffee industry, he is passionate about sharing knowledge of coffee and tea. With extensive experience in coffee training, troubleshooting, product development, and coffee competitions, Georgios is committed to pushing the boundaries of excellence in coffee and hospitality.
As we head into 2025, the coffee industry is experiencing an unprecedented shift, with green coffee prices reaching record highs. According to a report by Sprudge, the coffee commodity market recently broke the $4 per pound barrier, signaling long-term pricing shifts that will affect every part of the coffee supply chain. The recent surge in the C-price—the benchmark for green coffee—has surpassed $4 per pound, marking a historic moment for the market. Much like the volatility seen in 2021/2022, climate change remains the primary driver of this increase. While previous spikes were largely attributed to frost in Brazil, the latest rise reflects a combination of weather disruptions across multiple producing countries. The coffee market is deeply interconnected, and while Brazil remains the largest single producer, disruptions in Vietnam, the world’s biggest robusta producer, have played a significant role in pushing prices upward.
Market pricing operates on future projections, and major tradehouses predict that these high prices will persist through 2025 and possibly into 2026. The current rates are nearly three times what they were throughout the 2010s, which were, when adjusted for inflation, among the lowest on record. After years of unsustainably low prices, this shift may finally provide some financial relief to farmers, though increased production costs continue to challenge profitability.
For years, consumers have benefited from artificially low coffee prices. This increase may feel like an adjustment, but it’s also an opportunity to support farmers and reshape the industry in a more sustainable way
Impact on the Coffee Industry
• Farmers: While higher prices should benefit producers, rising costs of fertilizers, labor, and logistics mean that the net profit gain might not be as significant as expected.
• Roasters and Retailers: Specialty coffee roasters and commercial brands alike are grappling with higher costs. Many will either have to absorb some of the increases or pass them on to consumers.
• Cafés and Restaurants: Many coffee shops have struggled to remain profitable in 2024, with labor costs and rent already presenting major challenges. The increase in coffee prices will only add to this pressure.
• Sustainability Concerns: As the cost of production rises, some businesses may scale back sustainability initiatives, such as fair trade and organic certifications, which rely on stable financial structures.
The £5 Flat White and Consumer Adaptation
With rising coffee prices, consumers will soon feel the effects:
• A £5 Flat White Becoming Reality: As noted by Maxwell Colonna-Dashwood, the increase in raw coffee prices, combined with rising labor and operational costs, means a £5 flat white may soon become the norm rather than the exception.
• A Shift Toward “Less, but Better” Consumption: Consumers may begin rethinking their coffee habits, choosing higherquality coffee in smaller quantities rather than opting for the cheapest option. After years of artificially low prices, this shift reflects a more realistic and sustainable valuation of coffee.
• More Robusta in Blends: With robusta prices approaching arabica levels, we may see more premium robusta making its way into espresso blends, a move that could redefine traditional perceptions of specialty coffee.
It is important to acknowledge that, for years, consumers have benefited from artificially low coffee prices. While this increase in cost may be an adjustment, it also represents an opportunity to support farmers and the coffee industry in a more sustainable way. Consumers may need to shift their mindset toward valuing quality over quantity and recognizing that paying more for coffee ensures better wages for those who grow it.
Looking Ahead
The record-breaking C-price for green coffee marks a pivotal moment for the industry. While it presents significant challenges, it also offers an opportunity to rethink pricing structures, ensure fairer compensation for farmers, and drive innovation in sourcing and sustainability.
The coffee industry is at a crossroads—will it be a short-term adjustment or a long-term shift? One thing is certain: as we move into 2025, businesses and consumers must navigate a changing landscape where quality, cost, and sustainability are more intertwined than ever.
